Where does the two-child benefit cap hit hardest in Greater Manchester?

Dear readers — The two-child benefit cap is in the headlines, as pressure builds on the new Labour government to get rid of it. The cap, which prevents families receiving benefits for their third child and any others after them, has been described by campaigners as a major cause of child poverty in the UK. Within Greater Manchester, there are significant amounts of child poverty, but the impact of the cap is not equally felt. That’s our big story for today. 

Over the weekend we published an evocative piece by Mollie, who visited Crompton Lodge, a caravan site she first visited in 2021 to meet the Ward family. The Wards and other Travellers have recently been evicted from their home by Bolton Council, due to antisocial behaviour that has come to be associated with the site. Mollie took a look at whether it's fair for all the residents to be evicted. One member said the piece was “a beautifully written portrayal of the kind of discrimination and persecution faced by gypsies and travellers in the UK and elsewhere,” another said “this is brilliant work.”

Last week, we had a lively comment section over why Greater Manchester doesn’t have a lido yet, sparked by Jack’s writer’s edition. And Times Radio’s Darryl Morris went out on Market Street with antagonistic YouTuber Charles Vietch, in the hopes of understanding why a former 9/11 conspiracy theorist now spends his days provoking and filming drug addicts in Manchester. To read those pieces, and our vast back catalogue of long-reads, interviews and essays, hit the button below and become a member.

Unmissable drama at the Davis Cup

From today’s sponsor: Wimbledon may be over, but you don't need to go to London to see top flight tennis. The Davis Cup will be coming to the AO Arena in Manchester in September, with a chance to see some of the biggest names in the game. Known as the World Cup of Tennis, the event is unlike any other in men's tennis, with the GB Team taking on Canada, Argentina, and Finland, and will feature Milos Raonic and Cameron Norrie. Premium seats with the best view of the action are available for just £65.

Don't miss the chance to see an incredible sporting spectacle right here. To buy your tickets, click here.

⛅️ This week’s weather

Finally, some good weather news. Our local weatherman Martin Miles says temperatures will be much warmer this week with some pleasant summer days ahead.

Tuesday 🌦️ A wet start with outbreaks of heavy rain, then gradually turning drier and brighter during the afternoon. Breezy. 18°C.

Wednesday ⛅️ Warm and mostly dry with hazy spells of sunshine. 23°C.

Thursday 🌦️ Warm and muggy with hazy sunny spells and a few showers. 21°C.

Friday 🌦️ Warm once more with sunny spells but also some showers. Breezy. 21°c.

Weekend 🌦️ Turning cooler and unsettled as low pressure becomes established.

The big story: The impact of the two-child benefit cap in Manchester

Top line: The new Prime Minister, Sir Keir Starmer, continues to come under pressure to scrap the two-child benefit cap. What impact is it having on Greater Manchester?

Context: The cap was introduced in 2017 by the then-Conservative government. It means that families with more than two children don’t receive benefits for those additional children born after 2017. The Resolution Foundation has estimated that families lose around £3,200 per year per child due to the policy. And recent data released by the Department for Work and Pensions show that 1.6 million children in the UK are affected.

Demands: Many MPs, including from within the Labour Party, are calling for the cap to be scrapped. Stephen Bush, writing in the FT, comments: “You name a faction of the Labour party, and they have their own reason why they hate the two-child limit” — with many arguing that the easiest way to achieve Labour’s objective of reducing child poverty is to scrap the cap. Starmer has said he is “not immune” to these arguments, but that the cost of doing so — estimated at roughly £3.4bn a year by the Institute for Fiscal Studies — is currently unaffordable. 

The Liberal Democrats have set out their opposition to the policy, and now the SNP are proposing to table an amendment to the King’s Speech. If taken forward, that could become very uncomfortable for Starmer. 

Greater Manchester impact: Within GM, the impacts of the cap are not evenly spread. In areas of North Manchester and Salford, such as around Cheetham Hill, more than half of families with children have three or more children. The towns of Bolton, Oldham, and Rochdale all have high proportions of larger families.

Birth dearth: There’s also evidence to suggest the cap is reducing the number of children born in Greater Manchester. In recent years, around 4,000 fewer babies were born than before the cap was introduced. Other factors, including the economic uncertainty of the pandemic, may be playing a part, but the downwards trend has been clear since the cap’s introduction.

Bottom line: The data shows the cap falls especially heavily on those with fewer means. And, as we covered last week, Labour’s new cabinet features a lot of faces from less privileged backgrounds, many of whom have lived at the sharp end of the benefits system. Those Labour MPs who represent Greater Manchester seats should be making the case to have it scrapped.

Your Mill briefing

⚽️ The Guardian spoke to dejected football fans at the AO Arena last night, after England lost the Euros 2024 final to Spain. The arena claimed to be hosting the biggest Euros fanzone in Europe, welcoming 16,000 people looking to launch £8.50 pints of Morretti in the name of football coming home. As you almost definitely already know, it wasn’t meant to be. Despite a second half equaliser from Wythenshawe-born Cole Palmer, Spain came back to clinch a 2-1 win in the 86th minute. One fan said: “I don’t know much about football but I know they didn’t play their best. But the positive is we got to the final … We’re proud of our team and we’re proud of our country.”

🏗 The new Labour government wants to build 1.5 million houses over the next five years, reinstating an annual 300,000 house target scrapped by the Conservatives. These plans are leading some to worry that a spike in new properties could cause house prices to dip. Good news for first time buyers, less so for owners. The Telegraph has looked at which areas are likely to be most impacted by Labour’s housing plans and, unsurprisingly, Greater Manchester’s green and “grey” belt makes the list.

🎭 Aviva Studios (née Factory International) is expected to inject £1.1bn into Manchester’s economy, according to a report by Manchester City Council. The forecast might help people reconcile the amount of money that was spent getting Aviva Studios built and open (it cost more than double its original £110m budget). The centre has also attracted £106m of investment from central government and Arts Council England, an almost unprecedented amount for an arts organisation outside of London. Read our essay on the opening of Aviva Studios here.

🏡 Bury Council is going to re-purchase some of the social homes it lost to the “Right to Buy” scheme. Since Right to Buy was introduced in 1980, the council has lost 5,500 social homes and says families have faced "a chronic shortage of social and affordable housing" as a result. Their new buyback policy is meant to help meet housing needs and reduce homelessness. 

🎻 And finally: Tickets are now live for Manchester Baroque’s performance of Vivaldi’s Four Seasons centred around the “Summer”. Click here to book.

Home of the week

This two-bedroom apartment is in a Grade II listed former Cotton spinning mill in the city centre. It boasts an open-plan living room, a Juliette balcony and lovely exposed brick. Yours, for £425,000.

Our favourite reads

Park Hill’s developer was given millions for affordable flats. So where are they? — The Sheffield Tribune

The Manchester-based developer Urban Splash promised it would transform Park Hill, an architecturally-renowned block of brutalist flats that offers breathtaking views of Sheffield, from a run-down council estate to a “mixed tenure development” where a fifth of the flats remained social housing. Ultimately, this social housing did not arrive, and this did not become a story of transformation, but a story of “Sheffield — a city which once proudly offered high-quality housing at affordable prices — allowing a developer to rework this former council estate in a way that almost entirely prices out council tenants.”

From closeted men to a major age gap – finding love against all odds — The Guardian

Kathleen was a Manchester City supporter who devoutly attended Mass every Sunday and thought “the Church of England lot were heathens”. Graham was a Red who grew up in a Conservative family with a strong anti-Catholic sentiment. It shouldn’t have worked, but sparks started to fly at a ballroom dance class in 1951. They’ve now been married 65 years. “We’ve had rows about all sorts over the years, but never about religion,” Kathleen says. “For all the things they said would go wrong, none of them did.”

Can Reform win over Labour’s heartlands? — The Financial Times

After Nigel Farage’s Reform Party came second in 89 Labour constituencies, mainly post-industrial areas that hold particular loyalty to Labour, the FT’s Northern Correspondent Jennifer Williams asks whether Reform could pose a genuine electoral threat. Rob Ford, professor of political science at the University of Manchester, says: “It isn’t that he has a sewn-in ability to win Labour seats that will cause trouble within Labour. It’s the fear that he could.”

Our to do list

Tuesday

🎨 The Whitworth is showing a major retrospective on the work of Caribbean British artist John Lyons, who explored Trinidadian folklore and mythology through painting and poetry. It’s free to visit.

🐦 Bolton Museum is showing Birds of Bolton, a new exhibition that features the work of the late artist Eric Gorton, who spent over fifty years filling his sketchbooks with his observations of local wildlife. It’s free to visit.

Wednesday

✏️ Salford Museum and Art Gallery is hosting a life drawing session guided by the artist Caroline Coates, who will be particularly focussing on the proportions of the human form. £10.

📸 There’s a new photography, painting and film exhibition at Manchester Central Library that features work from Nigerian diaspora artists Chigozie obi, Daniel Oyegade and Dou, who have explored their history and culture as “an ode to what is alive within the mundane”. It’s free.

Thursday 

📚 Clay + Sound, a new zine by experimental musician and clay artist Jennifer Lucy Allan and Mark Edwards, is launching its first edition at Rare Mags in Stockport. Tickets are £5 and include a free drink on arrival.

🎷 Neo soul, jazz and hip hop group Good Grief, whose sound has been compared to Nubiyan Twist and BADBADNOTGOOD, are performing a free gig at Matt and Phred’s.