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Crypto Predictions Markets Betting on Whether Trump Will Win the White House in 2020

July 05, 2020

Investors using the crypto-based prediction market platform Augur are betting President Trump will once again win the race for the White House.

Augur markets have Trump at a 55% chance of winning the reelection and being inaugurated for the 2021-2025 presidential term, according to Predictions.Global.

“The presidential election is scheduled for Tuesday, November 3, 2020; and the inauguration is scheduled for Wednesday, January 20, 2021. The market will be resolved by the end of Inauguration Day (January 20, 2021), UTC-7, at the latest. If it is clear that Donald J. Trump will not be inaugurated as President prior to that, the market will be resolved earlier.”

Augur allows users to bet on a given event’s outcome through the buying and selling of shares in the event’s market. Because Augur is decentralized, anyone can create a market as long as the event that is being bet on is legitimate.

Crypto traders are also betting on Trump’s election prospects through the TRUMP futures contract on the crypto derivatives exchange FTX. But traders on FTX are currently predicting that Trump will lose the election with the futures contract trading at a little over $0.40, meaning that Trump has a 40% chance of winning the election.

The TRUMP futures contract will expire to either $1 if Trump wins the 2020 election or $0 if he loses. Bettors are able to long or short the contract based on their election stance.

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