Coinbase Premium Discount Could Signal ‘Splendid’ Six to 12 Months for Bitcoin, Says FalconX Analyst

The head of research at crypto brokerage firm FalconX thinks that the coming months will see the return of tremendous upside volatile moves for Bitcoin (BTC).

David Lawant says on the social media platform X that the current discount on Coinbase BTC premium is reminiscent of August 2023 conditions when Bitcoin was trading at around $25,000 before igniting a rally to record highs close to $74,000.

“Always darkest before the dawn?

According to my calculations, the last time the Coinbase premium was this negative was a couple of months before the massive rally from Oct 2023 to March 2024.” 

The Coinbase Bitcoin premium index tracks the percentage difference between the price of BTC on Coinbase Pro and its price on the crypto exchange Binance. Coinbase primarily serves US customers, including large institutions while Binance caters to a more global customer base.

A deeply discounted Coinbase premium index indicates weak buying pressure from US investors, a condition that has coincided with Bitcoin price bottoms in the past.

According to Lawant, the next few months will likely see Bitcoin soar to new heights as he believes US investors will eventually return and bid on BTC.

“Something tells me the next six-12 months will be splendid – and probably volatile. Let’s see!”

Last month, macro guru Raoul Pal said that crypto is inching closer toward the “Banana Zone” or a period of sustained uptrend for digital assets. He noted that politicians tend to “hand out candy” in the form of stimulus packages during elections, leading to higher inflation and in turn, higher prices for Bitcoin and crypto.

“Look, the backend quarter of an election year is true banana zone for all assets. It always is. So you know that you’ve got a very, very, very high probability that by autumn things are utterly ripping.

I mean, how long before ETH, Bitcoin [and] SOL break their recent highs? It could be two weeks. It could be two months. It doesn’t really matter, but then it accelerates.” 

At time of writing, Bitcoin is worth $62,113.

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